CS875 Unit3 Discussion Board2–Planning and Forecasting

Business planning and innovation have become essential for any organization, many organizations have realized how important it has become to adjust to the changing business environment for survival and sustainability. In addition, innovation forecasting has become significant in overall business planning and innovative business planning has become a priority rather than the traditional approach, which may require gradual changes to business need over time (Wade, 2014). There is a need to filter proper and useful information for processing and to enhance the decision-making process based on knowledge acquired. In todays’ chaotic and competitive business environment, many organizations have realized the importance of adjusting to the changing business environment for the sustainability and survival of their organizations. Simply put, business-forecasting method used for prediction of the future, maybe narrowly defined based on the economic conditions, which may consist of historical information and current data, and which will give accurate picture of all economic conditions, to predict the future.

The importance of Business Planning and Forecasting

Business planning and forecasting is a valuable business method that enables businesses to develop data-driven strategies, to drive business financial decisions, including operational decisions and market conditions, which contributes to predictions on the outlook. Business forecasting allows the use of historic data to analyze, aggregate and to discover patterns, used for future prediction of trends and changes. Therefore, business forecasting allows the organization to be proactive instead of being reactive (Landau, 2018). It is important to establish alternative business plans that sets you apart from other businesses and to enable you to create healthy profit margins, using easy to understand and manage dynamic forecasting methods (Güell, 2019). You must ask the right questions such as, what are the characteristics of the project that need to be undertaken using the following business innovation process checkpoints listed below; there are five forecasting checkpoints and methodologies in business process innovation, that include quantitative statistical methodology, project analysis and regression analysis with complex algorithms (Güell, 2019);

·         Causal methodology or methods, which is based on statistical data and target population relationship

·         Statistical methodology or methods, which is based on historical data and trends, recurrent or cyclical period, correlations and patterns; you need these combinations to make a  projection 

·         Exploratory and Qualitative methodology used with Delphi method in the brainstorming group, surveys, design thinking, forecasting, historical data and product analysis

·         Consensus methodology building, which is used for exchange of results from different methods; and requires team of individuals to contribute from their methods and ideas

·         Simulations/Analogy methodology used for different scenarios, for predicting future outcome; this is applicable in long-term planning situations.

Technology has reshaped our lives for a long time, yet the need for business forecast looms very high in modern business environment with changes in technology; and enables business leaders in driving organizations to gain competitive advantage and to predict future business outlook. There are variations of forecast such as, Financial, Economic, Marketing, etc. Technology forecast helps business leaders to engage in future predictions and embrace the force of change from the predictions.

Business Innovation

Many predictions and interpretations from science fiction movies revealed future inventions and innovations; and real life innovations follow closely. Life-altering technological innovations have extended live expectancy and have simplified our lives around the world. With predictions and innovations, product developments follow closely.  For example, technological innovations like the cell phones and helicopter received inspirations from sci-fi moves and episodes like “Star trek” and “War of the Worlds”. See attached document (CS875 Unit 3 Discussion Board 2 – Attachments).

Advantages of forecasting

Business forecasting is not as easy task; but it offers great advantages, which include –

·         Valuable insight from access to past and present or real-time data, to predict the future

·         Ability to learn from past mistakes, it is difficult to start from scratch, you gain some leverage

·         Decrease in cost, existing processes will help to increase efficiency and profitability, and decrease excess inventory and cost of development

Disadvantages of forecasting

·         Forecasting is hard and it is never 100% accurate and some products have higher volatility

·         Very time-consuming and resource intensive, requires data gathering/collection and marketing

·         It is not cost effective; cost of quality tools or upfront costs can be expensive

 

There was a short movie clip created around 1967 that depicted a “house of tomorrow” which shows how shopping activities or habits can change when people watch old sci-fi movies or clips; shopping for high-end appliances and electronic machines increase substantially (Larkin, 2019).  

Different technologies are beneficial to people around the world, benefits include convenience and life-saving innovations; the new technologies that are beneficial, but can be detrimental, if put to bad use; they can harm the society.  

This assignment calls for prediction and innovative ideas of infamous predictions; the most infamous prediction that comes to mind is the Internet prediction that eventually came to fruition and popularity of the Internet sky-rocked from imagination to popularity and has changed the world (Larkin, 2019).