Animoto Video Demonstration

This is a demo of the Animoto video

 

CS875 Unit 5 DB 2 requires: design of a socio-technical fictional tech company called PeopleConnect Tech

     The socio-technical system task requires designing a fictional technological company called PeopleConnect Technology (PeopleConnect Tech),  which is a fictional technology company that will connect you to the world through the web and provides a combination of SSH, Telnet, Remote connect and multi-factor authentication, and will provide the user with Linux and PC like capabilities. As you connect to the web, the system will stay connected for users using the Graphical User Interface (GUI); and for users connecting through a Command-line interface (CLI), it will provide a shell-like interface, to connect and retrieve data from the web and other network system and will provide an option to disconnect, when the task(s) is completed.

The video link will outline the design with some animations and a touch of Reggae music. Click on the link below and select play to enjoy the animation. The graphical representation of the video display shows 10 slides for the graphical design.

This is a demo of the PeopleConnect Technology (PeopleConnect Tech) design

    Scope - including 3 features and limitations of the technology innovation

The scope and importance of the socio-technical system, think of social media companies like Facebook (Meta) and Twitter, it is hard to isolate these platforms because of the role they play in our lives. The features of PeopleConnect Tech, the socio-technical system design will include hardware uniqueness, software versatility and user-community oriented design and feature contributions.

Components -

·         Hardware: The hardware design will be used by software developers and the end-user community for proof of concept and feature validations and verifications

·         Software: The software and application will use the hardware created by developers and user-community driven features, and will interact with the hardware

·         User community or users: Those that interact with software and hardware; and will influence consumers of other systems; best advertisement is gained from the different user experiences.

There are some sociotechnical principles for managing the complexities of PeopleConnect design:

·         Resilience and Adaptability of the system: Sociotechnical design system prioritizes adaptability, the system will be adaptable to address uncertainty with easy to modify features

·         Autonomous handling and agility:  Design responsibility is not solely placed on individual contributors, but will apply socio-technical design principles which will focus on group or team design adaptability, and communicate changes with the user community

·         Entire lifecycle tasks:  Project lifecycles are not managed by multiple teams but sociotechnical system process that allows project management by a single team with the user community input, this empowers and simplifies the decision-making process

·         Tasks are meaningful at all levels: Team(s) have complete ownership of tasks from the beginning of the project to the end of the project, and the project team controls closure. 

Socio-technical system design benefits

Socio-technical system (STS) recognizes system complexities built into the design and technology, users are able to utilize the technology efficiently, and this minimizes the risk of missing features in the system design, therefore, STSs have built-in design benefits for the user community and for the company too; the built-in benefits include: 

·         Effective management of system challenges: The user community will add to simplify the complexity of STSs, therefore giving the system developers the ability to manage and respond effectively. The agility of the design will assist the organization to respond to the user community needs

·         Self-regulation and quick error detection:  Teams inside the STS development community will monitor the system and can quickly identify and recognize problems and correct the problem before the user community identifies the problem

·         Responsibility and system trust: The system is autonomous and assumes the responsibility of fixing the problem(s), and supervises the system performance from the beginning to the end. The system is designed and trusted by our user community to handle user issues effectively.

Obstacles of sociotechnical systems that may be discovered early in the process and corrected -

Generally, a Socio-technical system (STS) uses a distinct organizational structure with considerable risks and opportunities. STS for PeopleConnect Tech will minimize these risks and will be less vulnerable due to built-in processes and protections that will avoid these limitations (Whiteworth and Ahmad, 2011); typically, STS systems limitations are, 

The limitation includes:

·         Blind Spot issues and limited system understanding: STS offers a limited understanding of how different system layers interact with each other, therefore, increasing the organization’s risks. STS effectiveness keys on how layers interact

·         Wrong information: STS gives inaccurate information; good information makes good business decision-making. Bad information will enable you to act incorrectly based on information the leaders of the organization may have 

·         Challenges for human-machine interaction: Based on human-machine systems’ interaction, with operators and users, user error may occur without being detected and cause of the error may be difficult to detect

·         STS complexity can grow beyond organizational system design: STS systems tend to grow faster than traditional technologies and STS can become too complex for a company to manage until change control is adopted

·         Uncontrolled behavior: Managers or leaders may not have direct control of a sociotechnical system on how customers respond to STS or the long-term viability of the STS design and improvements (Geels, 2004).

Therefore, in STS technology, some errors may be impossible to prevent. Fortunately, how a company responds can identify and help an organization to navigate these challenges effectively. Our STS design will take into account these limitations.

Unit 3 IP - Scenario-type planning, scenario analysis and scenario prediction

 Introduction

The unit 3 IP task requires a comprehensive discussion on the importance of scenario-type planning and innovation; and why businesses without proper scenario-type planning tend to experience failure when they rely on standard forecasting.  Is scenario planning important to an organization? Scenario planning brings agility to an organization and helps organizations to be proactive and adapt to multiple developments and eventualities.  It helps to understand the outcome of key business opportunities and key variable advantages; including the ability to handle internal and external sudden changes, an example is the recent supply chain issues, raw material cost increases that may cause a company to restructure or respond to sudden forces in a rapid and calculated manner. 

Scenario-type planning, scenario analysis, and scenario prediction

An organization must also include scenario thinking, and scenario-use methods, to form strategic planning that will be flexible for business long-term planning. What factors contribute to good strategic planning in an uncertain and ambiguous business environment? It is not the amount of money spent on traditional research and development; scenario planning plays a major and appropriate role. In today’s business applications, less emphasis is placed on understanding the behavior of your competition, more attention or emphasis is spent in understanding the natural environment you play in. For example, the Royal Dutch Shell organization describes scenario planning as changing the mindsets of the extrinsic behavior in the part of the world they are exploring before formulating some specific strategies. Scenario planning involves systems thinking and recognizing as many factors as possible in analyzing the complex ways and alternatives with non-linear function parameters. Another example, farmers may use scenario planning for the prediction of weather factors and to determine future harvests, sales forecast, and to determine what drives future farm investments.

Discuss an organization that used standard forecasting without the application of appropriate scenario-type planning

I explored a few articles on newspaper companies for this research but decided to explore the Sony Walkman story; it was fascinating, as I witnessed the evolution and factors that contributed to the fizzling of the Walkman evolution from Sony. According to (Hernandez, 2018), Sony organization did not perform proper or acceptable Scenario-type planning but counted on their experience to carry out standard forecasting; this was one of the major reasons their market share fell behind Apple, and they never recovered. Major Key requirement of scenario planning is apprehension and appreciation of future trends and how difficult to understand due to market forces and other environmental factors, including the desire to learn what the future holds (Wade, 2014). It becomes essential to understand that predictions and scenario-type are not the same; the scenario has a contrasting way of peeking into the future (Wade, 2014) but predictions forecast the future. Looking back to Sony Corporation, they had a good product and they should have conducted several braining storming sessions to understand the trends and other driving forces that may have affected Sony Walkman, like indirect and direct ways that could have affected the product in any magnitude (Wade, 2014). 

How does scenario-type planning support innovation changes

Before Sony Walkman came into existence, cassette player was in existence, and music customers had a preference for vinyl records (Haire, 2009). The Walkman device emerged and was introduced in 1979 and sold in the market for about $150 each and sold out in three months and demand skyrocketed (Adner, 2012 & Franzen, 2014). They designed the device with two jack features that allowed two individuals to listen to the same song at the same time, this feature was very popular when this feature was introduced; the market grew in the 1980s and market share grew to 50% and Sony sold over 200 million, over a 30-year period in U.S. and Japan markets. Apple came out with iPod between 2001 and 2009 and the iPod device sold about 160 million devices in 8 years (Haire, 2009). In the 1990s, CDs and music files such as mp3s were introduced with better quality sound and the cassettes market started dwindling down to zero (Adner, 2012). Sony Corporation pivoted to new formats, including the introduction of the CD version of the Walkman to mp3s but they could not get the mp3 version to dominate the market and the growth they saw the Walkman (Adner, 2012). However, the iPod was ahead of its time, even with 50 different mp3 type devices in the market. Apple realized that iPod would soon be less useful with the speed of the mp3 player. With broadband technology emerging, Apple leveraged broadband speed and provided a downloadable device with 5 GB storage space at the cost of $399 (Adner, 2012, Apple, n.d.). iPod became very successful and popularity grew, they took advantage of the challenging forces based on their analysis and environmental factors, incorporated mp3 feature and introduced iTunes music software, it became more popular, they introduced iTunes retail store in 2003 (Adner, 2012). By the early part of 2008, Apple had already claimed about 48% market share of mp3 devices; and the cassette version of the mp3 Walkman version abruptly ended in 2010 (Franzen, 2014). Sony tried to rebound with the Walkman device called ZX2 with better quality audio features at the cost of $1200 but it also fizzled because it lacked smartphone-like features at the time (Franzen, 2014; Miller, 2015).   

Comparing Scenario-type planning with traditional business-continuity operations and planning 

Challenging issues/forces and impacts of moving from Walkman to mp3 -

Scenario-type planning and traditional business-continuity planning are clearly in conflict with each other.  In comparison, both use structured based design processes that help organizations to navigate the future; scenario-type planning looks at revenue generation over time. Business continuity planning is designed in a way of how a business will react to any form of disaster, including warehouse fire, accidents hitting a building, earthquakes, or other natural disasters. By bringing business leaders together to discuss the future of the organization, and how to grow the business, chances are, you may avoid some potential risks. Take an illustration of Sony Walkman, cassette players, and mp3 products; and how they came into existence; and the effect of Scenario-type planning and business-continuity planning on the survival of the products. Disruptive media is up and traditional media is down.

Actions required - ensuring scenario planning is successful

-         -    Ensure that you secure some commitments from responsible managers or your management for scenario-type      planning, then, select your implementation team and define or organize key issues around the scenarios and          evaluate

-          -    Ensure that your assumptions are clearly defined, then, establish relationships between the number of                    scenarios created and all the known driving forces

-          -    Ensure that each scenario will present a clear and cogent future view

-          -    Focus on significant differences with all scenarios

-          -    Update all assumptions on the scenarios on regular basis.

Actions to avoid in scenario planning

-          -    Avoid all issues to be defined and considered upfront before developing the scenarios

-          -    Avoid too many scenarios; the recommendation is to start with three scenarios. A key recommended                     assumption is to start with a 50% best guess, and with the general assumption that 25% will get better and 25%     will get worse

-          -    Avoid trying to develop one perfect scenario, there is no perfect scenario

-          -    Avoid fixating on your favorite scenario

-          -    If a scenario ceases to be relevant, do not continue to hold onto the scenario.

Disadvantages of scenario planning include a lengthy process of collecting data with applicable driving factors; for larger enterprises or organizations, planning may take months to complete, understand that factors impacting planning positively or negatively can change very quickly.

There are three steps for a better and complete Scenario Planning application

1.       In the means of uncertainty, ensure that you identify all the critical triggers: Crises will come from time to time, when you face any type of crisis, organization and financial leaders of the organization should immediately establish some guidelines for response to the strategic plan, on how to develop different scenarios. The scenarios must be set with certain assumptions surrounding events, the survival of the organization may be on the line, and the scenarios chosen should trigger a series of action items. In times of crises, organizations must use existing historical data with credible and persuasive outcomes, to regulate expected tasks and results for all responsible divisions. Scenario-type planning will give managers and upper-level leadership some breathing space to minimize crises, to assess the economic situation, and all considerations must be an essential part of scenario-type planning

2.       Develop and include multiple and simplified scenarios: When you plan and build your scenarios, your finance team(s) might feel overwhelmed based on the potential prediction of the outcomes, and based on all possible outcomes; this is why you are encouraged to simplify the scenario. Plan to pivot on a few possible outcomes, and build simple scenarios and expand from there.

3.       Develop and build an agile response and strategic plan: Ensure that each scenario has complete details to access all pointers, including the likelihood of success or failure for each strategic option. Then, financial leaders can create the framework needed to execute the plan and make decisions; every decision made has financial implications, and is monitored in real-time and agile response should follow in support of the response team.

The task is to self-examine, evaluate and outline list of wishes, and life desire, and future accomplishments for the near future and beyond

The simple matrix table below will outline my target plan for Education, Job or Job search, Philosophical or Religious beliefs, Travel, and keeping the Home front

Conclusion

My list reflects ideas, current achievements, future targets, wishes, and desires. I see myself as a great achiever; I have nearly accomplished every goal I set for myself.  I set achievable goals and work towards those goals; COME RAIN, SUNSHINE, OR SNOW, as long as I have my good health and I give God the glory!   I have always helped others and the glory comes back to me in many folds; this has kept me being religious. I believe in a higher power and this has been my guide. I strongly believe that I can accomplish most things on my list as long as I have my health. This class has been a gift for me in terms of reinforcement on what the technological future holds for me, using available technology and the new technology that awaits my contribution. Thank you Dr. C. for inventing and teaching this class, and I hope everybody is enjoying the class as much as I do. I wish everybody the best!

CS875 Unit3 Discussion Board2–Planning and Forecasting

Business planning and innovation have become essential for any organization, many organizations have realized how important it has become to adjust to the changing business environment for survival and sustainability. In addition, innovation forecasting has become significant in overall business planning and innovative business planning has become a priority rather than the traditional approach, which may require gradual changes to business need over time (Wade, 2014). There is a need to filter proper and useful information for processing and to enhance the decision-making process based on knowledge acquired. In todays’ chaotic and competitive business environment, many organizations have realized the importance of adjusting to the changing business environment for the sustainability and survival of their organizations. Simply put, business-forecasting method used for prediction of the future, maybe narrowly defined based on the economic conditions, which may consist of historical information and current data, and which will give accurate picture of all economic conditions, to predict the future.

The importance of Business Planning and Forecasting

Business planning and forecasting is a valuable business method that enables businesses to develop data-driven strategies, to drive business financial decisions, including operational decisions and market conditions, which contributes to predictions on the outlook. Business forecasting allows the use of historic data to analyze, aggregate and to discover patterns, used for future prediction of trends and changes. Therefore, business forecasting allows the organization to be proactive instead of being reactive (Landau, 2018). It is important to establish alternative business plans that sets you apart from other businesses and to enable you to create healthy profit margins, using easy to understand and manage dynamic forecasting methods (Güell, 2019). You must ask the right questions such as, what are the characteristics of the project that need to be undertaken using the following business innovation process checkpoints listed below; there are five forecasting checkpoints and methodologies in business process innovation, that include quantitative statistical methodology, project analysis and regression analysis with complex algorithms (Güell, 2019);

·         Causal methodology or methods, which is based on statistical data and target population relationship

·         Statistical methodology or methods, which is based on historical data and trends, recurrent or cyclical period, correlations and patterns; you need these combinations to make a  projection 

·         Exploratory and Qualitative methodology used with Delphi method in the brainstorming group, surveys, design thinking, forecasting, historical data and product analysis

·         Consensus methodology building, which is used for exchange of results from different methods; and requires team of individuals to contribute from their methods and ideas

·         Simulations/Analogy methodology used for different scenarios, for predicting future outcome; this is applicable in long-term planning situations.

Technology has reshaped our lives for a long time, yet the need for business forecast looms very high in modern business environment with changes in technology; and enables business leaders in driving organizations to gain competitive advantage and to predict future business outlook. There are variations of forecast such as, Financial, Economic, Marketing, etc. Technology forecast helps business leaders to engage in future predictions and embrace the force of change from the predictions.

Business Innovation

Many predictions and interpretations from science fiction movies revealed future inventions and innovations; and real life innovations follow closely. Life-altering technological innovations have extended live expectancy and have simplified our lives around the world. With predictions and innovations, product developments follow closely.  For example, technological innovations like the cell phones and helicopter received inspirations from sci-fi moves and episodes like “Star trek” and “War of the Worlds”. See attached document (CS875 Unit 3 Discussion Board 2 – Attachments).

Advantages of forecasting

Business forecasting is not as easy task; but it offers great advantages, which include –

·         Valuable insight from access to past and present or real-time data, to predict the future

·         Ability to learn from past mistakes, it is difficult to start from scratch, you gain some leverage

·         Decrease in cost, existing processes will help to increase efficiency and profitability, and decrease excess inventory and cost of development

Disadvantages of forecasting

·         Forecasting is hard and it is never 100% accurate and some products have higher volatility

·         Very time-consuming and resource intensive, requires data gathering/collection and marketing

·         It is not cost effective; cost of quality tools or upfront costs can be expensive

 

There was a short movie clip created around 1967 that depicted a “house of tomorrow” which shows how shopping activities or habits can change when people watch old sci-fi movies or clips; shopping for high-end appliances and electronic machines increase substantially (Larkin, 2019).  

Different technologies are beneficial to people around the world, benefits include convenience and life-saving innovations; the new technologies that are beneficial, but can be detrimental, if put to bad use; they can harm the society.  

This assignment calls for prediction and innovative ideas of infamous predictions; the most infamous prediction that comes to mind is the Internet prediction that eventually came to fruition and popularity of the Internet sky-rocked from imagination to popularity and has changed the world (Larkin, 2019). 

CS875 - Futuring and Innovation

 CS875 - Futuring and Innovation

This post will discuss Futuring and Innovation (CS875), associated future innovations, and a little bit about myself included my profile.  

CS875 from Colorado Technical University (CTU) talks about futurists and innovative technological ideas, skill development in Futuring using different techniques, formal methods, and diffusion of innovative ideas.

CS875 - Unit 2 Discussion Board 2 (summary) - Delphi Techniques method

 CS875 - Unit 2 Discussion Board 2 (summary)

Delphi Techniques method 

The Delphi method fosters an environment where experts can work towards a mutual agreement using the combined questionnaires and delivering each successive round to members. It is important to know that expert responses might shift new rounds are achieved, consensus may be reached over time as different opinions are swayed from other experts, each expert learning from other experts participating in the analysis; this is achieved without physically bringing everyone together to reach these decisions; making the Delphi method very effective (Twin, 2021). There are different types of methods in use, Delphi Technique and Nominal Group Technique (NGT); I will discuss the Delphi method in detail.

Advantages of the Delphi Technique Method?

The Delphi technique method seeks to compile different opinions from different experts; this view is achieved without bringing everybody together in one physical location. It is important to understand that responses from participants will remain anonymous; an expert does not have to worry about receiving any repercussion from their diverse opinions. A consensus view is expected over time, as expert opinion may be swayed or controlled, making this method very effective.

Disadvantages of the Delphi Method?

The Delphi technique is quite different from live interactions and results may be different. Sometimes, a live discussion-making process may produce a better consensus view and result, as perceptions and ideas may be introduced, and reassessed on the fly. Delphi method response can take a longer time to hash out, which may slow down the rate of the decision-making process; information received from the experts may be less valuable.

Understanding Key Takeaways of Delphi Technique method

• The Delphi decision method is a group-based decision-making process achieved by sending a survey to a group of experts to evaluate
• Experts respond to a number of questionnaires provided by the group facilitator, and the responses are collected/shared with the expert group after each round.
• The experts are allowed to adjust their answers after each round of questionnaires, based on their interpretation of "group responses"
• The final result will be a good consensus of group thoughts
• The Delphi method is a known process for compiling a group decision using a survey for a group of experts
• Experts know they are required to participate in several rounds of questionnaires, and their responses are shared with other experts
• The experts are encouraged to continue to adjust their answers as they see fit, after each round of questionnaires, based on their interpretation of the "group responses" provided to them.
• The ultimate result will represent a true consensus view of the group decisions.